ANALYSES

Deeper understanding of global and local processes

Research and expert commentary on the geopolitical, economic and security dynamics shaping Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Balkans and the wider world.

Milorad Dodik’s referendum through the prism of game theory known as the “Prisoner’s Dilemma”
ANALYSIS08 SEP 2025

Milorad Dodik’s referendum through the prism of game theory known as the “Prisoner’s Dilemma”

The truth is that the outcome of the war in Ukraine, in a certain variant, may influence the situation in Southeast Europe if that is indeed the strategic goal of the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin. However, in all variants Dodik would more likely be used and pay the political price, than achieve any benefit for the wider community which he claims to represent.

MIRELA IMŠIROVIĆ
Between Dugin’s Eurasianism and Trump’s Pragmatism: How Will Bosnia and Herzegovina Shape Its (Geo)Political Future?
GEOPOLITICS16 FEB 2025

Between Dugin’s Eurasianism and Trump’s Pragmatism: How Will Bosnia and Herzegovina Shape Its (Geo)Political Future?

Bosnia and Herzegovina is entering a new era in which clinging to outdated paradigms and hoping that great-power geopolitics will bend to our will is no longer tenable. We must initiate serious consultations and strategic reflection now—any delay will not only cede the initiative but also risk having decisions about our future made without our involvement.

IGES
NATO and EU Countries Are the Largest Investors in Bosnia and Herzegovina
ECONOMY27 OCT 2022

NATO and EU Countries Are the Largest Investors in Bosnia and Herzegovina

From the perspective of realpolitik, delaying and slowing down Euro-Atlantic integration causes immeasurable harm to its citizens. Any policy in BiH and the region that harbors utopian ideas that someone else will make a significant impact in these areas is on the wrong course.

ELDIN BULJUBAŠIĆ
Srebrenica Genocide Denial: A Clear and Present Danger
GEOPOLITICS29 JUL 2022

Srebrenica Genocide Denial: A Clear and Present Danger

Rather than acknowledging responsibility for the carnage, ultra-nationalist Republika Srpska politicians and their acolytes have spent the past twenty-six years denying that what took place at Srebrenica constituted a genocide and instead are shamelessly fabricating an alternate—and false –scenario.

MENACHEM Z. ROSENSAFT
Dr George Friedman: The World and a Small War
GEOPOLITICS24 APR 2022

Dr George Friedman: The World and a Small War

So we see Poland and Turkey taking on greater significance as a result of the war, and China losing significance. There are many other reverberations. I chose these three, if it is not already obvious, because in my book “The Next 100 Years” I predicted the rise of Poland and Turkey and the decline of China.

GEOPOLITICAL FUTURES
Bill Clinton: I Tried to Put Russia on Another Path
GEOPOLITICS10 APR 2022

Bill Clinton: I Tried to Put Russia on Another Path

Beginning in 1995, after the Dayton Accords ended the Bosnian War, we made an agreement to add Russian troops to the peacekeeping forces that NATO had on the ground in Bosnia. In 1997, we supported the NATO-Russia Founding Act, which gave Russia a voice but not a veto in NATO affairs, and supported Russia’s entry to the G7, making it the G8. In 1999, at the end of the Kosovo conflict, Secretary...

THE ATLANTIC
Utilization of UAVs as a strategic lever in the Ukraine War
SECURITY06 APR 2022

Utilization of UAVs as a strategic lever in the Ukraine War

It is quite certain that the greatest benefit from technological recombination and reverse transfer will be reaped by developing countries, i.e., those countries that enjoy cultural influences of both the West and the East, Bosnia and Herzegovina being one of them. The military and strategic success of brave and clever people of Ukraine is a practical example to support this claim.

BAKIR KALAJDŽISALIHOVIĆ
Is Bosnia-Herzegovina Next on Russia’s Radar?
GEOPOLITICS11 MAR 2022

Is Bosnia-Herzegovina Next on Russia’s Radar?

However, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s instability is far more complex than the crisis in Ukraine for one structural reason: It is not in Russia’s near abroad but in the European underbelly, which presents both an opportunity and a threat for all opposing sides at the local, regional and international level.

EMIR HADŽIKADUNIĆ
The Chess Game Between NATO and Russia in Eastern and Southeastern Europe
GEOPOLITICS18 FEB 2022

The Chess Game Between NATO and Russia in Eastern and Southeastern Europe

In the future, the European Union and NATO will need to consolidate their internal ranks and show greater unity. The next step is to integrate the remaining countries in the Balkans into NATO and the European Union, with Bosnia and Herzegovina as the central country for regional stability.

ELDIN BULJUBAŠIĆ
The legal aspect of military power imbalance in the Balkans
SECURITY07 FEB 2022

The legal aspect of military power imbalance in the Balkans

There are interesting data on attack planes and helicopters, where the former FRY retains the right to 155 planes and 53 helicopters, 850 armored combat vehicles, 3750 artillery weapons, while for Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Republic of Croatia, there’s a symmetry of the previously mentioned 410 battle tanks, 340 armored combat vehicles, 1,500 artillery weapons, 62 fighter jets and 21 attack...

ADNAN MURATOVIĆ
State property was not handed over to the entities in Dayton (Bosnian Land Map from 1992)
GEOPOLITICS10 DEC 2021

State property was not handed over to the entities in Dayton (Bosnian Land Map from 1992)

As for the state property, i.e., ownership, it is clear that it covers the entire state territory, i.e., state land, public goods, mines, oil fields, mountains, rivers, road, rail, sea and air transport, etc. The legal holder of this entire state property, i.e. the territory, is the state, and municipalities are only the holders of the right of use.

IGES
The common identity of today’s citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina
GEOPOLITICS06 DEC 2021

The common identity of today’s citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Dr. Nada Klaić: "However, these unskillful projections on the Serbness of Bosnia are worth as much as Šišić's proof of the Croatness of Bosnia. However, the uncritical report of Constantine Porphyrogenitus on the Sclavinias can serve as a basis for conclusions only to those historians who do not care too much about historical truth. It is mostly of the same value as Dukljanin's news of Croatian...

IGES
Azem Vllasi: The Balkans is not Afghanistan!
GEOPOLITICS27 NOV 2021

Azem Vllasi: The Balkans is not Afghanistan!

Therefore, all pro-European political forces in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo and Macedonia must not agree to concessions under blackmail and threats from right-wing forces, whether they come from the region or the European Union.

AZEM VLLASI
Viktor Orban: Serbia is a key country for the European Union?!
GEOPOLITICS30 SEP 2021

Viktor Orban: Serbia is a key country for the European Union?!

How, then for Orban, Serbia could be a key state in the sense of an enlargement of the European Union to the countries in the region? Perhaps Prime Minister Orban does not know that under the command of Serbian General Draza Mihajlovic, systematic crimes were committed against Bosniaks in Eastern Bosnia, Sandzak and Montenegro during the World War II.

IGES
How Afghanistan is lost  
GEOPOLITICS23 AUG 2021

How Afghanistan is lost

While it is overly simplistic to refer to rural Afghanistan as simply an honor-revenge society, many Afghans can be greatly influenced by this dynamic. And an Afghan man’s honor for a millennium has been defined in a very real sense by how female family members, who exist in a state of purdah (seclusion), are treated, as well as how their possessions and property are treated.

NEWLINES MAGAZINE
Why The Taliban’s Victory Represents A Victory For Long-Term US Geopolitical Interests
GEOPOLITICS23 AUG 2021

Why The Taliban’s Victory Represents A Victory For Long-Term US Geopolitical Interests

In fact, given the relatively paltry number (fewer than 10 000) of US troops stationed in the entire country since the latter years of President Obama’s second administration, it would appear that US political and military decision-makers had long decided not to commit troops in sufficient numbers necessary to occupy and subdue the country i.e. to win the war.

EURASIA REVIEW
What Is behind the Recent Rise in Global Food Prices?
ECONOMY09 AUG 2021

What Is behind the Recent Rise in Global Food Prices?

Market indications of steady demand across each of these food, feed, and fuel sectors signal to traders that further price increases may be in store and have led to recent speculative buying, pushing prices higher.

CSIS
The “SERBIAN WORLD” IS A COPY OF the “RUSSIAN WORLD”: The Russian World in Moscow’s Strategy
GEOPOLITICS06 AUG 2021

The “SERBIAN WORLD” IS A COPY OF the “RUSSIAN WORLD”: The Russian World in Moscow’s Strategy

In 1992, President Boris Yeltsin and Andrei Kozyrev, Russia’s first foreign minister, introduced the term “compatriots abroad” into the political lexicon. Since 1994, the concept has developed into a concrete state policy, manifesting itself in a series of laws and state programs, as well as through some foreign policy decisions. The concept of the “Russian World” only began to penetrate the po...

CSIS
Energy dynamics between the EU and Russia: A strategic partnership or a security dilemma
GEOPOLITICS07 JUL 2021

Energy dynamics between the EU and Russia: A strategic partnership or a security dilemma

Despite the continuing presence of uncertainty, it is believed that the EU’s dependence on gas imports from Russia will continue to increase in the decades to come. This issue will be the main strategic challenge for the EU, but also for America, as the main European ally. European - Russian relations affect the direct relationship between the two largest nuclear powers, Russia and America.

MIRELA IMŠIROVIĆ
Atlantic Charter, NATO Summit and Support to Bosnia and Herzegovina
GEOPOLITICS06 JUL 2021

Atlantic Charter, NATO Summit and Support to Bosnia and Herzegovina

The English version of the B&H Constitution is the only valid and authoritative one, mentioning the word "constituent", but not "constitutive". The difference is that the word “constituent”, as stated in the B&H Constitution (www.ohr.int), means “to be a part, or a component of a whole”, while the word “constitutive”, which is not in the B&H Constitution, means “to have power or authority to co...

IGES
Drones – The “Space Race” of Our Time
ECONOMY22 APR 2021

Drones – The “Space Race” of Our Time

It has been estimated that by 2030 more than 600,000 people will be employed in the pilotless aerial vehicle industry. In the period ahead, it will be necessary to develop new skills and knowledges which will be a unique challenge for those companies that decide to integrate aerial vehicles into their regular operations.

BAKIR KALAJDŽISALIHOVIĆ
New geopolitical positioning at the Arctic
GEOPOLITICS22 APR 2021

New geopolitical positioning at the Arctic

According to the Arctic Council report, the number of ships navigating Arctic waters is continuously increasing, recording a growth of 25% in the period of 2013-2019. The number of kilometers traversed in the same period increased as well by as much as 75%, from 6.1 million km to 10.7 million km. When only cargo ships are observed, that number is increased by as much as 160%.

FARIS MARUKIĆ
Destination Europe: North Macedonia’s Journey Toward Euro-Atlantic Integration
GEOPOLITICS18 APR 2021

Destination Europe: North Macedonia’s Journey Toward Euro-Atlantic Integration

The Prespa Agreement, signed on 17 June 2018 between the Republic of North Macedonia and the Republic of Greece under the auspices of the UN, ended the almost three decade long dispute between the two countries and allowed North Macedonia to realize its aspirations for joining NATO and the EU.

ALEKSANDRA DIMOVSKA
Disinformation in the Western Balkans
SECURITY07 MAR 2021

Disinformation in the Western Balkans

The Western Balkans region is very vulnerable to foreign disinformation, which has intensified in recent years. Why is this? What can be done to mitigate it?

NATO
Energy security in the era of hybrid warfare
SECURITY12 FEB 2021

Energy security in the era of hybrid warfare

Energy security has been a key strategic factor in military thinking since the start of the 20th century. Recent events show that it has become a major and growing challenge for the Alliance in an era increasingly dominated by hybrid warfare.

NATO
Geopolitical significance of Kashmir
GEOPOLITICS10 FEB 2021

Geopolitical significance of Kashmir

The conflict over Kashmir between Pakistan and India was waged in three wars and began in 1947. Both countries felt that the territory belonged to them completely.

MIRELA IMŠIROVIĆ
Mackinder: Who rules Eastern Europe rules the World
GEOPOLITICS08 FEB 2021

Mackinder: Who rules Eastern Europe rules the World

The Biden administration's announcements that will renew the American alliance with Europe, and give support to the Western Balkans on the path of integration into NATO and the European Union, are encouraging.

ADNAN KAPO
Macedonian path to NATO
GEOPOLITICS02 FEB 2021

Macedonian path to NATO

Former US President Geroge W. Bush announced that three countries, Macedonia, Croatia and Albania, would become new members of the Alliance. Macedonian membership was opposed by Greece, which vetoed due to the unresolved dispute over Macedonia's name.

DŽELAL HODŽIĆ
NATO membership brings stability and economic growth
SECURITY01 FEB 2021

NATO membership brings stability and economic growth

Citizens can hardly get informed about the facts of economic progress that a NATO membership brings, as well as overall prosperity, rising living standards, building infrastructure, better health and education.

IGES
Net zero carbon and energy sustainability
ECONOMY31 JAN 2021

Net zero carbon and energy sustainability

When it comes to the Balkan region, Serbia is obtaining 70% of its electricity from solid fuels, while Croatia produces 60% of electricity in hydropower plants. Bosnia and Herzegovina has a strong overall capacity being an exporter of electricity, which generates 40% from hydropower potentials and 60% from the combustion of solid fuels.

FARIS KRESO
The sky is not the limit
ECONOMY31 JAN 2021

The sky is not the limit

Flying above the clouds across our planet, as a Boeing 747 pilot, I have come to realize that the sky is not the limit but the most cohesive tie, a bridge to anywhere!

BAKIR KALAJDŽISALIHOVIĆ
Countering drones: looking for the silver bullet
SECURITY30 JAN 2021

Countering drones: looking for the silver bullet

Unmanned Aircraft Systems pose an ever-increasing, multifaceted threat to civilian and military infrastructure, assets and people. What are the Allies doing to address this challenge?

NATO
Europe, 100 years later!
GEOPOLITICS25 JAN 2021

Europe, 100 years later!

A similar evil that has twice devastated Europe in the last century is active again creating the preconditions for new conflicts.

ADNAN KAPO

Stay ahead of the geopolitical curve

Receive our latest analyses, event invitations and Academy announcements — straight to your inbox.